This single question could be the most important one in the history of the franchise. And I don't know that I'm actually exaggerating at all with that assessment. Brad Richards is the man this year. He is the one whale available in the Free Agency market that opens this Friday at Noon. An acquisition of Richards would, without a shadow of a doubt, indicate that Terry Pegula's promise of Hockey Heaven (and the newly accredited University of Hockey) is more than just lip service.
Let's look at the pros first. Brad Richards is a legitimate number one center, which we haven't had since 2007. What's more, he's an even better center than either Danny Briere or Chris Drury. That's not to be critical of either of them, but you're talking about a legitimate superstar in Richards, scoring .972 points a game (716 in 772) in the regular season and 62 points in 63 games in the playoffs (compared to .799 during the season and 96 points in 97 playoff games for Briere). He has a ring from his time with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He wants to play in a hockey market that is a legitimate Stanley Cup contender which we're close to without him and possibly the top contender in the Eastern Conference with him.
I'm going to say that again. With Brad Richards and no substantive subtractions, the Sabres push to the head of the line with Boston, Washington and Pittsburgh.
And one last thing, for all the talk of his age, he has just turned 31 and minus a concussion at the end of last season (which he came back from to finish out the season and try to make the playoffs) he has never had serious injury issues. He's missed 5.8% of his games throughout his career, his career low for games played being 56 games in 2008/09. With reports in the New York Post that he's looking for 8 Years and between $50 and $55 Million dollars ($6.875 average cap hit at the top end) it seems a very reasonable price to take that step forward.
But it's not all unicorns and rainbows. The NY Post story stinks to me a little bit. Looking for comparables I'm drawn to compare Richards to Joe Thornton in San Jose. Thornton is a center, is also 31 years old (ten months older in fact than Richards) who is at just over a point a game during the season. Thornton makes $7 Million through the next three years, which (if I recall) happened before he hit the market and was a sort of a home town discount.
Add in that Richards is the only whale on the market and doesn't have the playoff questions that Thornton does (despite what he has done this year to amend that) and I worry that a story like that might be generated to get blood in the water and get offers up closer to $8 Million dollars or higher. Much higher if it ends up being a bidding war between Buffalo, Toronto and the New York Rangers.
Don't get me wrong; I'm more than willing to back up a Brinks truck for Richards. My only issue is if backing up said Brinks truck means that Uncle Terry can't install the Scrooge McDuck swimming vault for Tyler Myers.
Then there's the coin flip of whether a guy like Thomas Vanek and his emerging leadership role take a step back; can Vanek get the 'I'm Awesome' spirit into his head and be the captain we need him to be? If he can't do that with a top center to play with, well, then I don't know how much I need his services. It's not a Richards question, it's a team question. Can we pull together the way we need to.
I think the answer is yes and you go do what you need to do. Taking a look at the Sabres, there is room to be made having just over $11 Million Left (with the clutch deal that Darcy Regier made with Nathan Gerbe at 3 years/$1.433 Million per) under the cap. Assume that another $5 Million gets added to that when Kotalik and Morrisonn get sent to Rochester. I'm also sending Brad Boyes away (Florida isn't the only team struggling to make it to the floor) and I have $20 Million to work with.
Just to make the numbers easier to work with, let's call Myers plus Richards $13 Million. That leaves you $7 Million for your four RFAs, Cody McCormick and a third center or extra defender. That's a solid to great team there.
The rest of this is purely conjecture....
Derrick Roy and Jason Pominville have done a lot for this club, and I love Roy's contract for our cap. But their $9.3 Million will be nice to help Colorado get to the Salary Cap floor. Overpay to send them there, with Calgary's 2nd Round Pick (or perhaps our first) to get Paul Stastny. It gives me $2.7 Million more to work with and gets me a 2nd center who can be a #1 on a team without Brad Richards (and as Richards ages, can becomes the #1 when Richards becomes a #2). Can that get me Max Talbot (who wants to test the waters) or Chris Drury (if he's healthy). I'm willing to bring in another year of Rob Niedermayer or (shudder) Tim Connolly if that's the guy we're bringing in behind Stastny and Richards.
I offer the following lines for you consideration:
| Buffalo Sabres 2011-12 Forwards | ||
| Thomas Vanek | Brad Richards | Drew Stafford |
| Jochen Hecht | Paul Stastny | Tyler Ennis |
| Zach Kassian/Nick Foligno | Drury/Talbot/Connolly/Niedermayer | Nathan Gerbe |
| Cody McCormack | Paul Gaustad | Pat Kaleta |
| Buffalo Sabres 2011-12 Defenders | |
| Tyler Myers | Robin Regehr |
| Jordan Leopold | Marc-Andre Gragnani |
| Andrej Sekera | Chris Weber |
With this roster, it leaves us something like $2 Million, give or take a million depending on what we land as a third center, to play with in regards to call-ups. That gives us time (and room) to see if Foligno or Kassian develop to replace Jochen Hecht's expiring contract and Luke Adam to become an emerging 3rd Center.
I will note that if we don't land Brad Richards, it's not game over by any stretch. Stastny is a fantastic target for a #1 center if we can grab him and allows us a little more money to work on another defender or a better
Other Notes:
- Loved Nathan Gerbe on Mike Schopp and the Bulldog this afternoon sounding genuinely excited about his contract. Liked the numbers even better, and I liked his comments that he wasn't greedy and didn't want to go to arbitration best of all (even if I'm the only one who thinks it's a dig at Tim Kennedy over last season's contract).
- Happy to hear of the founding and accreditation of the University of Hockey between Buffalo and Rochester. If I were local to the area or the gas to go to one game wasn't almost four tickets worth of cash, I would jump on Amerks season tickets at $10 a seat. Great way to rebuild the flagging Amerks fan base and to regionalize the Sabres even further.
- Bills WR Stevie Johnson was in Bristol, CT at ESPN headquarters to show off his new jersey. This, combined with news on more serious meetings between Roger Goodell and DeMaurice Smith means the lockout is almost over, just in time to have substantial free agency and training camp. Colour me shocked.
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