Saturday, July 2, 2011

On Realism and the Fickle Fan Base

I'm hearing a lot of "Hockey Heaven is a lie," "Terry Pegula was scared off by the Rangers, what the hell!?" and "I was going to come back to watching hockey, but now I'm not because they gave up on Richards" from fans on WGR550.com and in other places.

It is not the defeatist in me talking when I say this; The Sabres weren't going to get Brad Richards. I know we wanted him and that anything seemed possible. And it still is. But not every player wants to come to Buffalo. Some people want a big city. Some people really want to play with their favorite coach or want a ridiculous amount of money that is going to make it impossible to make the rest of the team function without gutting it.

And that's okay. If Richards doesn't want to be here and wants a ton more money than is realistic, Toronto, Los Angeles, Calgary and (the team I bet he will end up with) New York can have him. And if you have any concerns about us second guessing ourselves and whether he is going to be overpaid, wait until you see the contract that Tim Connolly will get signed to not long after the Richards deal is official.

But that is all okay. If we go to war with this team (lines below) we're much better than we were last season if we can bring it together at all. We should have beaten Philadelphia last year and we could have beaten Washington. Now we've greatly upgraded our defense and traded out Connolly for Ville Leino.Despite what Darcy Regier has said about being done, I don't believe it. I think it's a smoke screen so that we don't overpay for another center.

And if it's not, well, it's year one of a three year plan. I'm not settling. I'm looking at what's been done and think that we have a team that's a Cup contender (though not necessarily a Cup favorite yet, need to see what what the team looks like on the ice before I go that far). I believe, as I did during the time leading up to the Regehr trade, that defense was far and away the best place to put our money (rather than focus on an overpriced center). We have one of the top goaltenders in the league and we've made our defense better by an order of magnitude. We'll be fine.

No wonder Ryan Miller goes into hiding in the off season. After all the good stuff we said about our town in the lead up and the wooing of Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff, we've become hyper-negative. So everyone, take a breath, and quit your bitching. We've improved the team a lot, and if you think failing to overpay Brad Richards means that the team isn't doing all they said, you're barking mad.

But, if you want to get off the bandwagon now, just remember that we're not going to let you back on just because Darcy made a move, and we sure as hell don't want you at the Party in the Plaza or the eventual parade where we ask which gawky white guy is going to rap about winning the Stanley Cup.

Friday, July 1, 2011

I am Jack's Cautious Optimism

The Sabres are not done.

It is, as best as I can tell, impossible for the Sabres to go forward without making any moves. While this team is leaps and bounds better than last year's team, I don't know that they've gone from "Playoff Team" to "Stanley Cup Favorite" which is where we wanted them to be (and where they would have been had Brad Richards been signed today). We might be a Stanley Cup Contender, but to mix my sports metaphors, I want a quarterback, not a project.

Like I said, I don't think we're done. We've about a million to go below the cap (The Sabres, for the Record, have the highest cap number for next year as of this writing) and need to pay Enroth, Sekera, Weber and Gragnani. Kotalik and Morrisonn (the latter of which who, according to WGR550's Paul Hamilton, wants to be waived) will go away and give us more room. But we're sort of deep all over our roster except for center.

And we need a legitimate number one center.

Derek Roy is above average, but he's not the clutch player that we need to lead us out onto the ice. Ville Leino, for all the team's talk, would be better served on the left wing (and if we're doing individual goal songs, his should be the Thundercats Theme, seeing as he is their leader). I can live with Gaustad and McCormack as my bottom centers if Roy is second on the depth chart and we have a legitimate stud on the first line. It's the missing piece,

Now, there is a part of me that wants to scream that it's a three year plan and we could certainly go into the season with this roster and make a move near the trade deadline to bring someone in (because if you thought this year's Free Agent class was bad, don't even consider looking at next year). Or that we can trade for someone next year in the off season.

But that part of me is wrong.

Three years, to my mind, simply accounts for the possibility of injury and bad luck. I would expect to see someone else moved and think that Leino as a center is a bit of a smoke screen so as not to screw us in negotiations for another center.

As for the contracts, if Leino plays to the level of his contract, then I'll be pleased as punch. But it's a little high. As is Cody McCormack's who was also signed today, but I feel like his contract is less of a risk of being a huge overpayment. I also think that Christian Ehrhoff's contract is a little ridiculous, but that's the NHL in this day and age. He is far more proven than Leino and being payed less per year (If certainly not for the first two years).

At the end of the day, I give the Sabres a B on the report card, but do so in pencil. When we have the four RFAs taken care of and see what else happens in the trade market, I can then properly judge the Leino signing and maybe use a pen for my grade.


Wednesday, June 29, 2011

The Rich Get Richards

Is Brad Richards a realistic choice for the Buffalo Sabres to be going after?

This single question could be the most important one in the history of the franchise. And I don't know that I'm actually exaggerating at all with that assessment. Brad Richards is the man this year. He is the one whale available in the Free Agency market that opens this Friday at Noon. An acquisition of Richards would, without a shadow of a doubt, indicate that Terry Pegula's promise of Hockey Heaven (and the newly accredited University of Hockey) is more than just lip service.

Let's look at the pros first. Brad Richards is a legitimate number one center, which we haven't had since 2007. What's more, he's an even better center than either Danny Briere or Chris Drury. That's not to be critical of either of them, but you're talking about a legitimate superstar in Richards, scoring .972 points a game (716 in 772) in the regular season and 62 points in 63 games in the playoffs (compared to .799 during the season and 96 points in 97 playoff games for Briere). He has a ring from his time with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He wants to play in a hockey market that is a legitimate Stanley Cup contender which we're close to without him and possibly the top contender in the Eastern Conference with him.

I'm going to say that again. With Brad Richards and no substantive subtractions, the Sabres push to the head of the line with Boston, Washington and Pittsburgh.

And one last thing, for all the talk of his age, he has just turned 31 and minus a concussion at the end of last season (which he came back from to finish out the season and try to make the playoffs) he has never had serious injury issues. He's missed 5.8% of his games throughout his career, his career low for games played being 56 games in 2008/09. With reports in the New York Post that he's looking for 8 Years and between $50 and $55 Million dollars ($6.875 average cap hit at the top end) it seems a very reasonable price to take that step forward.

But it's not all unicorns and rainbows. The NY Post story stinks to me a little bit. Looking for comparables I'm drawn to compare Richards to Joe Thornton in San Jose. Thornton is a center, is also 31 years old (ten months older in fact than Richards) who is at just over a point a game during the season. Thornton makes $7 Million through the next three years, which (if I recall) happened before he hit the market and was a sort of a home town discount.

Add in that Richards is the only whale on the market and doesn't have the playoff questions that Thornton does (despite what he has done this year to amend that) and I worry that a story like that might be generated to get blood in the water and get offers up closer to $8 Million dollars or higher. Much higher if it ends up being a bidding war between Buffalo, Toronto and the New York Rangers.

Don't get me wrong; I'm more than willing to back up a Brinks truck for Richards. My only issue is if backing up said Brinks truck means that Uncle Terry can't install the Scrooge McDuck swimming vault for Tyler Myers.

Then there's the coin flip of whether a guy like Thomas Vanek and his emerging leadership role take a step back; can Vanek get the 'I'm Awesome' spirit into his head and be the captain we need him to be? If he can't do that with a top center to play with, well, then I don't know how much I need his services. It's not a Richards question, it's a team question. Can we pull together the way we need to.

I think the answer is yes and you go do what you need to do. Taking a look at the Sabres, there is room to be made having just over $11 Million Left (with the clutch deal that Darcy Regier made with Nathan Gerbe at 3 years/$1.433 Million per) under the cap. Assume that another $5 Million gets added to that when Kotalik and Morrisonn get sent to Rochester. I'm also sending Brad Boyes away (Florida isn't the only team struggling to make it to the floor) and I have $20 Million to work with.

Just to make the numbers easier to work with, let's call Myers plus Richards $13 Million. That leaves you $7 Million for your four RFAs, Cody McCormick and a third center or extra defender. That's a solid to great team there.

The rest of this is purely conjecture....

Derrick Roy and Jason Pominville have done a lot for this club, and I love Roy's contract for our cap. But their $9.3 Million will be nice to help Colorado get to the Salary Cap floor. Overpay to send them there, with Calgary's 2nd Round Pick (or perhaps our first) to get Paul Stastny. It gives me $2.7 Million more to work with and gets me a 2nd center who can be a #1 on a team without Brad Richards (and as Richards ages, can becomes the #1 when Richards becomes a #2). Can that get me Max Talbot (who wants to test the waters) or Chris Drury (if he's healthy). I'm willing to bring in another year of Rob Niedermayer or (shudder) Tim Connolly if that's the guy we're bringing in behind Stastny and Richards.

I offer the following lines for you consideration:

Buffalo Sabres 2011-12 Forwards
Thomas Vanek
Brad Richards
Drew Stafford
Jochen Hecht
Paul Stastny
Tyler Ennis
Zach Kassian/Nick Foligno
Drury/Talbot/Connolly/Niedermayer
Nathan Gerbe
Cody McCormack
Paul Gaustad
Pat Kaleta



Buffalo Sabres 2011-12 Defenders
Tyler Myers
Robin Regehr
Jordan Leopold
Marc-Andre Gragnani
Andrej Sekera
Chris Weber


With this roster, it leaves us something like $2 Million, give or take a million depending on what we land as a third center, to play with in regards to call-ups. That gives us time (and room) to see if Foligno or Kassian develop to replace Jochen Hecht's expiring contract and Luke Adam to become an emerging 3rd Center.

I will note that if we don't land Brad Richards, it's not game over by any stretch. Stastny is a fantastic target for a #1 center if we can grab him and allows us a little more money to work on another defender or a better

Saturday, June 25, 2011

What A Long, Strange Trade It's Been

Fweh. It sounds like we're all set, and I could wake up in the morning and find it all reversed, but, let's go with what we're looking at now.

According to his agent, Robyn Regehr has waved his No Movement Clause to come to Buffalo. TSN's Bob McKenzie reports that the deal hasn't been processed by the league (and still may not, see Ryan Smyth's various deals that haven't happened yet) but confirms the trade details originally broken by Joe Pinzone at Buffalo Wins is as follows:

Buffalo Receives: Regehr and Ales Kotalik
Calgary Receives: Chris Butler, Paul Byron and the 2012 2nd Round Pick  

If the trade holds up, this seems like an absolute steal for the Sabres.


  • I love getting Regehr. Calgary fans are distraught over how much they're going to miss the man called "The Tunnel of Death" (Best Nickname for a Sabres player at least since "The Cookie Monster" but certainly since "Alexander the Great"). This is the kind of lockdown defenseman that we need and will be a great guy to help improve our guys defensively and will help brutalize top lines with Tyler Myers. Also, putting a veteran in that spot who is going to play that physical game will free up Myers offensively. 
  • Kotalik's contract is there for Flames cap relief and the Sabres can easily move that down to Rochester, or with more difficulty (per Terry Pegula's focus on players first) either send him to the Czech Republic or buy him out and take a million dollar shot. And, who knows. There's a what if factor; what if he comes back here, gets a talk from Lindy and decides to tell all his doubters to back off by making a place for himself on this team
  • Butler hurts a little, but not as much as (realistically) any of our other D-men. Going in, Myers was the only guy I wasn't willing to trade. Sekera has the most promise (did you see him in the Olympics outplaying the Chara?) but doesn't always show it. Gragnani blew us away in the playoffs. Butler or Weber going is something I would have been fine with... especially for Regehr. While they play different games, I see them as a coin-flip value wise. 
  • Byron is a prospect with eight careers NHL games and is put together with the 2nd rounder. He's not Luke Adam. He's... just a prospect, and not the top prospect (just like Butler isn't the top prospect or the top D prospect). In exchange we get a guy like Regehr? I'm on board.
Now.... like I said, I could wake up tomorrow and this could be blown up, but as of right now, I'm going to go to sleep pleased with what's probably going to happen here. And we'll see you in the morning!

<> Sports Man's Afterthoughts <>
  • While I really like the idea of Drew Stafford being on hand to talk to new players, having him interview our new Finish forward Joel Armia who can't quite speak English was almost painful to watch.
  • I understand that there were legal issues with using the Jets logo on day one. I'm really hoping it's fixed for tomorrow. The silver and black NHL sweater is atrocious. #missestheblackandorange
  • Holy crap there were lots of other trades today. More on them tomorrow but I find the original Soupy Campbell going to Florida interesting and wonder how long that team is for South Florida.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Happy Hundredth Day of the Lockout!!!

The lockout of members of the trade organization that was once the NFLPA/Players Inc. by the National Football League has turned a lucky 100 Days Old today. Let's celebrate and sing a song in recognition of this fortuitous anniversary! For a hundred days, we've been here to listen to information about the NFL negotiated its latest TV deals in bad faith and how certain players feel the NFL is "Modern Slavery." We've endured player-organized workouts, the debate as to whether the injury risk without insurance from the league under contract was worth it followed by the debate as to whether or not the practices helped players at all, except from a public relations standpoint.

Which led to still more discussion as to whether or not OTAs actually help players.

Word of 'secret meetings' (being advantageously leaked for PR reasons) came out! And in the midst of those talk, rumors just so happened to come out about the plans that the NFL has for a shortened season. Who knows if the NFL leaked it to add pressure or if the Players leaked it to get PR points. Secret meetings give way to not so secret meetings.

Not so secret meetings give way to extensions of Board of Governors meetings. No one wants to see the Hall of Fame game cancelled. Things are improving. They take steps back. They improve more. They're not going to leave the table without a deal. Everyone wants a deal....

No kidding.

What we've learned in the last one-hundred days is this; Football is America's pastime and with the amount of money on the line, there wasn't a way that a deal wasn't going to be made. No games are likely to be missed, not even pre-season games (unfortunately). The NBA and NHL both gained a little extra exposure for their playoffs because Joe Casual Fan in New Hampshire and Jill Casual Fan in Houston didn't have, when it comes down to it, irrelevant Patriots, Cowboys and Texans news to contend with in their pleasure of following the Mavericks and Bruins to their respective titles.

But at the end of the day, when the deal is made, people will either say "thank God" or just "finally" and it will all go back to normal. It may come off that I hate the NFL. I don't. Sure, sometimes I may hate that the Bills don't get traction in the league, and I might prefer hockey, but it doesn't remove the entertainment value of our national sport.

What I hate is the farce that this off season has been. I hate the clever page that popped up if you clicked the link to the player's website above. I hate multi-millionaires comparing themselves to slaves. I hate the owners for making the 'bad deal' in '06 that they opted out of in '08. I hate that Ralph Wilson feels superior about voting against that deal and that he will likely vote against this one too. I hate that we're all going to come crawling back to our couches and HDTVs and our Fantasy Football Leagues like an abused spouse because 'it wasn't so bad' and 'at least we didn't lose any games, let alone a full season and Stanley Cup final.'

I hate that I wrote this blog. And I hate that I'll forget all this when the season starts.

Boom Goes the Dynamite - Philadelphia Flyers Extreme Roster Makeover

One years ago, Buffalo's own Patrick Kane scored in overtime to beat the Philadelphia Flyers in the Stanley Cup Finals. Last month, they beat a 'coming' Sabres team before getting shellacked by the eventual Stanley Cup Champions. Not too shabby, right?

Today, according to various sources, they signed the top Free Agent goaltender in Ilya Bryzgalov to a nine-year, $51 Million contract that will make him (as of this writing, according to Sportsnet.ca 's Mark Spector) the highest paid NHL player next season at $10 Mil, and traded away center Jeff Carter to Columbus to clear up some cap room in exchange for a couple picks and a Jakub Voracek.

And they traded away Mike Richards. Their Captain.

O.O

Richards is heading West to the Los Angeles Kings for the rights to RFA Wayne Simmonds and World Junior Championship MVP Brayden Schenn. Richards was, as noted above, the Flyers captain and number one center, Carter the number two. To say that their roster has been 'shook up' is like saying that Niagara Falls is 'kinda impressive'.

And the Flyers certainly aren't done. Even if Danny Briere moves back to center, they still need another guy up the middle. With word that Brad Richards is likely looking at either the Toronto Maple Leafs or New York Rangers, it likely means more trades. There was an early word that Kris Versteeg was also moving, to Florida, but that was almost immediately poo-pooed by Panthers management. They also have the 8th overall pick in tomorrow's draft and cap room to work with.

It's going to be an incredibly exciting off season around the league, if it hasn't already gotten to that point just with these trades.

TSN Reports Flames D Robyn Regehr asked to waive no-move clause to come to Buffalo

Original Article

So. Robyn Regehr.

Regehr is a solid defender. His numbers the last two years are almost identical; 2G 15A 17P +2 (the only difference is that he played 81 games in 09/10 and 79 last season). He feels like a better version of Shaone Morrisonn. To me he feels like a good anchor defenseman, a strong, tough player who's numbers (if not his style) are very comparable to former Sabre Henrik Tallinder.

I am going to be a very happy fan/armchair analyst if this is true. Kevin Bieksa is going to be the big fish this year when it comes to defensemen, and his cost will likely be well north of the 4.05 Million that we'd be playing Regehr for the next two years. It's also worth noting, looking at the numbers, that Bieksa and Regehr's playoff numbers are almost identical in the cup years. Now, it's fair to say that Regehr isn't the guy he was in 2004, offensively speaking. But, I'm excited about the possibility of a Myers/Regehr top, lockdown defensive pairing.

The only questions are, will he waive his no-move clause and what's the cost? If it's Boyes, I'm happy. If it's a prospect and a pick I'm probably still happy, but I really want to know who that prospect is first.

We certainly will see.