1-0 Boston with Patrice Bergeron coming out of a scrum in front of the net with the first goal of the game. This series, whoever has scored first has won this game, but that will continue to go contrary to the 6-0 record of home teams until the game is over.
It feels like the Canucks are playing better in spurts, while the Bruins are playing a more even, controlled game. Both goaltenders look pretty good, but Roberto Luongo seems to be fighting the puck a little more than Tim Thomas. Right now it's the Bruins 4th line that's really shining out there. Every time they hit the ice, Paille, Marchand and Thornton change the flow and dominate play when they're on the ice, while Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg continue to be the most lock-down defensive pair on the ice.
I still like my prediction after one.
Showing posts with label tim thomas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tim thomas. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Game Seven Predictions
This is most certainly and definitely it. The final game of the NHL season, Game Seven. Canucks v. Bruins
I'm tempted to hedge, tempted to sit on the fence and give if/than predictions.
Instead, I think it's a simple; Bruins win 4-2. David Kreijci will get the game winning goal but Tim Thomas will continue to be the engine that drives this team.
And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and think we'll figure it out very early in tonight's game.
I'm tempted to hedge, tempted to sit on the fence and give if/than predictions.
Instead, I think it's a simple; Bruins win 4-2. David Kreijci will get the game winning goal but Tim Thomas will continue to be the engine that drives this team.
And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and think we'll figure it out very early in tonight's game.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
The State of Goaltending in the NHL
Tim Thomas is, more than likely, about to win both the Vezina Trophy and the Conn Smythe Trophy (regardless of whether his team wins the Stanley Cup tomorrow night, 8PM on NBC). In six games in the Cup finals, he has allowed a total of seven goals. Over the course of his career, he has carried a sterling 2.11 Goals Against Average and a .933 Save Percentage. This year has been even better, carrying a 2.06 GAA and a .937 SvPc.
Roberto Luongo is not going to win the Conn Smythe this year, even if his team wins the cup, and has at best an outside chance at winning the Vezina. In three home games in the finals he has two shutouts (four taking the playoffs as a whole) and a 0.66 GAA, while at the same time being chased from the net in two out of three games in Boston, giving up a total of fifteen goals in, realistically, two games worth of playing time.
This year, statistically speaking, the two best goalies in the league are playing for the Stanley Cup
Last year Antti Niemi and the two-headed dragon of Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher went head to head in the finals. The three finalists for the Vezina were all drummed out in the first round of the playoffs. Going back to the lockout, this will be the only year that one of the top goaltenders will have won the cup (In order, Niemi, Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Osgood, J.S. Giguere and Cam Ward).
Before the lockout with only a handful of exceptions, the goaltenders that won the cup were the best in the game. Don't believe me?
It's possible that Thomas or Luongo will distinguish themselves further and make it to the level of some of those players, but I doubt it. The problem is this; Goaltending today is easy. I'm not saying that I could go out there and be an NHL goaltender, or that they don't deserve credit for standing in front of vulcanized rubber going (at times) in excess of 100 MPH. But, there's a disconnect between the great goaltenders of the past and the guys playing the game today.
Today, with the size of the gear, playing the percentages gets you about ninety-percent there. I know how to position myself to make a goal impossible. When Luongo made his inflammatory comments about the goal Vancouver won on in Game Five, he was talking about the way that most goaltenders are trained today, which is a condition of the size of the gear. A great save is made when a goaltender stands still and shrugs his shoulder in front of a puck.
Take a look at this video.
I was initially looking for just the first clip, Patrick Roy's ridiculous glove save while positioned, essentially, in the slot. But, through five minutes, you can see the evolution as gear got bigger and bigger. Goaltending became less and less about reflexes and guts, and more about a safe choice. It's a Hollywood super-sequel, or the eleventh Call of Duty game. It'll get the job done, but it is not the stuff of greatness.
And that, is why Roberto Luongo was right, and why Tim Thomas is one of the most engaging goaltenders to watch in the league. He plays at the edge of the crease and beyond it, he slides from side to side and makes legitimately great saves. He makes the spectacular saves that a guy like Luongo may make blandly from time to time, but likely misses all together, because playing inside the box it is impossible. Playing on the edge is just better for a game looking to grow.
(Also, if they made the gear smaller and/or the nets bigger, there's more scoring, which means more risks being taken each way, still more scoring and more excitement. But that's another argument for another time)
Roberto Luongo is not going to win the Conn Smythe this year, even if his team wins the cup, and has at best an outside chance at winning the Vezina. In three home games in the finals he has two shutouts (four taking the playoffs as a whole) and a 0.66 GAA, while at the same time being chased from the net in two out of three games in Boston, giving up a total of fifteen goals in, realistically, two games worth of playing time.
This year, statistically speaking, the two best goalies in the league are playing for the Stanley Cup
Last year Antti Niemi and the two-headed dragon of Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher went head to head in the finals. The three finalists for the Vezina were all drummed out in the first round of the playoffs. Going back to the lockout, this will be the only year that one of the top goaltenders will have won the cup (In order, Niemi, Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Osgood, J.S. Giguere and Cam Ward).
Before the lockout with only a handful of exceptions, the goaltenders that won the cup were the best in the game. Don't believe me?
1976-79 Ken Dryden (Montreal)
1980-83 Billy Smith (New York Islanders)
1984-85 Grant Fuhr (Edmonton)
1986 Patrick Roy (Montreal)
1987-88 Grant Fuhr (Edmonton)
1989 Mike Vernon (Calgary)
1990 Bill Ranford (Edmonton)
1991-92 Tom Barrasso (Pittsburgh)
1993 Patrick Roy (Montreal)
1994 Mike Richter (New York Rangers)
1995 Martin Brodeur (New Jersey)
1996 Patrick Roy (Colorado)
1997 Mike Vernon (Detroit)
1998 Chris Osgood (Detroit)
1999 Ed Belfour (Dallas)
2000 Martin Brodeur (New Jersey)
2001 Patrick Roy (Colorado)
2002 Dominick Hasek (Detroit)
2003 Martin Brodeur (New Jersey)
2004 Nikolai Khabibulin (Tampa Bay)
It's possible that Thomas or Luongo will distinguish themselves further and make it to the level of some of those players, but I doubt it. The problem is this; Goaltending today is easy. I'm not saying that I could go out there and be an NHL goaltender, or that they don't deserve credit for standing in front of vulcanized rubber going (at times) in excess of 100 MPH. But, there's a disconnect between the great goaltenders of the past and the guys playing the game today.
Today, with the size of the gear, playing the percentages gets you about ninety-percent there. I know how to position myself to make a goal impossible. When Luongo made his inflammatory comments about the goal Vancouver won on in Game Five, he was talking about the way that most goaltenders are trained today, which is a condition of the size of the gear. A great save is made when a goaltender stands still and shrugs his shoulder in front of a puck.
Take a look at this video.
I was initially looking for just the first clip, Patrick Roy's ridiculous glove save while positioned, essentially, in the slot. But, through five minutes, you can see the evolution as gear got bigger and bigger. Goaltending became less and less about reflexes and guts, and more about a safe choice. It's a Hollywood super-sequel, or the eleventh Call of Duty game. It'll get the job done, but it is not the stuff of greatness.
And that, is why Roberto Luongo was right, and why Tim Thomas is one of the most engaging goaltenders to watch in the league. He plays at the edge of the crease and beyond it, he slides from side to side and makes legitimately great saves. He makes the spectacular saves that a guy like Luongo may make blandly from time to time, but likely misses all together, because playing inside the box it is impossible. Playing on the edge is just better for a game looking to grow.
(Also, if they made the gear smaller and/or the nets bigger, there's more scoring, which means more risks being taken each way, still more scoring and more excitement. But that's another argument for another time)
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