Analysis on the Bruins victory and the ultimate moment of the 2010-2011 NHL Season will come in the morning. For now, from a devoted Sabres fan to the Bruins' nation, Congratulations and we'll get you next year.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
After two...
(Full disclosure: I've been rooting for the Bruins since the Burrows incident in Game One)
Things are going from bad to worse for the Canucks. It seemed for a long time like they were on the cusp of breaking out before the Marchand goal and seemed to have a golden opportunity to get back into the game before deciding not to call timeout, leading directly to Patrice Bergeron's second of the night, and it seems to just about be lights out.
But as a Sabres fan, I know that no big lead is safe in this year's playoffs.
...at the end of One...
1-0 Boston with Patrice Bergeron coming out of a scrum in front of the net with the first goal of the game. This series, whoever has scored first has won this game, but that will continue to go contrary to the 6-0 record of home teams until the game is over.
It feels like the Canucks are playing better in spurts, while the Bruins are playing a more even, controlled game. Both goaltenders look pretty good, but Roberto Luongo seems to be fighting the puck a little more than Tim Thomas. Right now it's the Bruins 4th line that's really shining out there. Every time they hit the ice, Paille, Marchand and Thornton change the flow and dominate play when they're on the ice, while Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg continue to be the most lock-down defensive pair on the ice.
I still like my prediction after one.
It feels like the Canucks are playing better in spurts, while the Bruins are playing a more even, controlled game. Both goaltenders look pretty good, but Roberto Luongo seems to be fighting the puck a little more than Tim Thomas. Right now it's the Bruins 4th line that's really shining out there. Every time they hit the ice, Paille, Marchand and Thornton change the flow and dominate play when they're on the ice, while Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg continue to be the most lock-down defensive pair on the ice.
I still like my prediction after one.
Game Seven Predictions
This is most certainly and definitely it. The final game of the NHL season, Game Seven. Canucks v. Bruins
I'm tempted to hedge, tempted to sit on the fence and give if/than predictions.
Instead, I think it's a simple; Bruins win 4-2. David Kreijci will get the game winning goal but Tim Thomas will continue to be the engine that drives this team.
And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and think we'll figure it out very early in tonight's game.
I'm tempted to hedge, tempted to sit on the fence and give if/than predictions.
Instead, I think it's a simple; Bruins win 4-2. David Kreijci will get the game winning goal but Tim Thomas will continue to be the engine that drives this team.
And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and think we'll figure it out very early in tonight's game.
Sabres GM for the Summer - Part Two
Welcome back to my tyrannical reign at the top of the Buffalo Sabres. For those of you who missed the first half, shame on you. But, I am a kind dictator, so to review; I signed a third line center, locked up Tyler Myers long-term and moved six million dollars off the payroll. Are we clear? Okay, moving on..
In summary, my Sabres could look very different than the team that's here now, if the right opportunity opens up, but that's not what I'm looking to do this year. I'd rather keep my team solid, keep some money in my back pocket and be able to make a move either next year or kill it at the trade deadline. If July 5th gets here, and we've added Ehrhoff, Fleischmann or Drury and a long term contract for Myers, I'm okay with what we're doing. If we make a big move and bring in a Weber, a Pronger, a Briere, a Spezza or even take a run at a guy like Brad Richards... I'm on board, because at least they're making good on their desire to grab the brass ring and hoist Lord Stanley's Cup at Niagara Square.
4. Add someone solid on the blueline
At the end of the day, the Sabres defensive corps failed out. There were too many holes in the young, developing players who weren't quite there yet and veterans like Steve Montador and Shaone Morrisonn just didn't come through when we needed them to. I've already sent Morrisonn down to the minors, and Montador is a free agent who I'm not looking at resigning unless there's some inside information about an injury being responsible for his tanking the latter third of the year through the playoffs. I want one more veteran to go with Myers, Jordan Leopold and three of the youngsters.
A lot of people are talking about Kevin Bieksa of the Vancouver Canucks being the hot commodity of this year's off season. He's a solid player and this playoff became clutch. Last season he made 3.75 Million. If not for his playoff, I'd look at him getting somewhere between 4.25 and 4.5, but his stock is rising and he could be a 5 Million a year player or higher (ie Brian Campbell's ridiculous contract in Chicago). If the price is that high (or higher) I'm not a horse in that race.
I may, however, be interested in taking a look at another Canuck in Christian Ehrhoff. In Ehrhoff, you're getting a guy who can quarterback your powerplay and put in a lot of quality minutes. The guy put away 50 points last year and was a plus-19 through the regular season (he's plus-74 for his career) and has 12 points through the playoffs. Last year, he made 3.1 and with a very good season and a decent playoff, he goes over 4 million and if the Canucks win the cup, he could be up near 5. But, again, I think that Bieksa is going to get a lot more attention than Ehrhoff and that may keep his price down a little bit more.
Other options (ie slightly less expensive) may be the Hurricane's Joni Pitkanen, the Ranger's Steve Eminger or the Flames Anton Babchuk.There are also a couple of bold moves to be made. If Shea Weber is sitting there without a solidified contract, I take a long look at how many draft picks and how much money it will cost to win the RFA steal of a lifetime. There are also teams like the Flyers who need cap relief and have a lot of ducks to get in a row, and assuming they land Ilya Bryzgalov (and seeing how the functioned without him against Buffalo), maybe Chris Pronger becomes available. With either Pronger or Weber, it completely changes the way that you build your team and the Sabres have one of the top defensive corps in the league.
5. Remember how I wasn't going to go after the #1 Center this year?Forget that for a moment. While I'm not making the #1 center a priority this year, I'm not going to ignore a ringing phone or not think about what I might do. I'm looking at my four young defenders and guys like Nathan Gerbe and Tyler Ennis and wondering what one or two of them look like paired up with a pick. Or how a nice low two years of Derek Roy may look awfully attractive to a cash strapped team.
Throw away the 'former Buffalo Sabres Captain' baggage, and Danny Briere could be there for Roy. Or send our first round pick and Gerbe or Ennis to the Blackhawks for Patrick Sharp. Superstars like Jason Spezza could be on the market, with a relatively reasonable long term contract, say Spezza for Ennis and the first and second, or Gerbe, one of the defenders and the first or second. If Thomas Vanek can not take a step back with another star working with him, how potent does a top line of Vanek/Spezza/Stafford sound with a Second line of (Gerbe/Ennis)/Roy/Pominville?
In summary, my Sabres could look very different than the team that's here now, if the right opportunity opens up, but that's not what I'm looking to do this year. I'd rather keep my team solid, keep some money in my back pocket and be able to make a move either next year or kill it at the trade deadline. If July 5th gets here, and we've added Ehrhoff, Fleischmann or Drury and a long term contract for Myers, I'm okay with what we're doing. If we make a big move and bring in a Weber, a Pronger, a Briere, a Spezza or even take a run at a guy like Brad Richards... I'm on board, because at least they're making good on their desire to grab the brass ring and hoist Lord Stanley's Cup at Niagara Square.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Sabres GM for the Summer - Part One
The Buffalo News likes their summer feature where some of the jobs of the major sports players are divied up between editors and columnists for a day; What would Bucky Gleason do if he was the GM at One Bills Drive? How would Mark Gaughan make the team Bucky put together do something on the field? How would Jerry Sullivan fix the power play?
Well, as an opinionated Sabres fan, I clearly think I have all the answers. (Or, at least I find it fun to consider what I might do to improve my team). So, here's my 'off the cuff' plan for the Sabres off-season.
(Note: I'm going to be working with the numbers that are essentially agreed upon in the media from what I've read in the News and heard on WGR 550 that the Sabres, with who they have signed, plus the remaining RFAs are going to have about $10 Million to work with)
1) Sign a Third Line Center
This year isn't quite the year to go fishing in the open waters for big game, unless it's not so much in the open waters but much closer to home (I'll get to that later). Brad Richards is a heck of a player, but his price is going to be driven up by the lack of other top tier players (let alone centermen) that are entering Free Agency this year. So, while I feel the number one center is a definite need for this team.
My first look is going to be at former Sabres and soon to be form Rangers Captain Chris Drury. I don't have qualms over the way he left in bringing him back to the team (if he will come at the right place) and I think he's the kind of player who can call business business and sit down with Lindy, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Miller and the rest of the leaders in the room and say, 'This is your team, not mine. I'm here if you need me, but you're the vocal leader. I'm the guy who's going to do my job and put everything out there on the ice.' If that works, and we can get him for somewhere between $1.75 and $2.25 Million, preferably lower but with reasonable performance bonuses, then I'm a happy man.
But, there are lots of ifs there, not the least of which being hangups from 2007 and the fact that his being bought out (which can happen from today onward) puts him on the market first. My secondary thought here is a guy like Tomas Fleischmann of the Colorado Avalanche. He's a solid player who didn't play a full season last year but was able to pick up 31 points over 45 games. Extrapolated to a full season, he'd end up with 56 1/2 points, which would have been good enough for second on the team in scoring (his 31 points would have tied him with Nathan Gerbe and Paul Gaustad for 9th on the team in scoring). According to Cap Geek, he made approximately 2.6 Million dollars last year, and it is possible that his price could go up based on the aforementioned center-light free agent market. If he can be had between 2.75 and 3.5, plus incentives, I'm all in, as he has the potential to fill a second-line roll behind Derek Roy if we need to wait to get our top dog.
Without going too much more deeply into the pool of Free Agents I would offer one more option. The problem is, that option is Tim Connolly. I am not a huge Tim hater, but I think that his time here may simply be done, and unlike Max Afinagenov, he doesn't have a huge local fan base to root for his return. What he is is a (mostly) solid center who became invaluable on the PK by the end of last season. I don't relish the idea of bringing him back, and certainly not for what we were paying him before. But, if we need to, say somewhere between 1.5 and 2.25, I would (reluctantly) sign up for it.
2. Keep the Fish you have
If not for the fact that Drury may be available at some point today, I would have made this my first point, because this is the single most important thing that the Sabres need to do; Lock Tyler Myers up and do it for the long term. There's a lot of talk about players with "It" factor, the guys who have the skill, the room to grow and the intangibles to be a sure thing. Myers is that guy, the way that there hasn't been a guy like that on this team since Pat LaFontaine. He is the guy on this lineup who is not expendable in any way shape or form. I sit the big fella down and say, "Tyler, you are the guy who is going to lead this team to the promised land," and then proceed to back up a Brinks Truck. My guess is that we land somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 Years and somewhere between $38 and $45 Million dollars. It's a huge pay day, but is nothing compared to what he'd get on the open market, and getting an RFA offer sheet next year on him that makes Vanek's look like pocket change is not at all unrealistic for a talent like his.
3. Clear Cap Space
Yes, I know, $10 Million sounds like a lot of money to play with. But, realistically, it's one big fish or two medium sized fish (to be mentioned in the second half of our run down). But that's just next year. Sabres owner Terry Pegula has redefined the goal of the team, the oft quoted "the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup[1]." Barring miraculous work of EA Sports NHL trading proportions and/or remarkable effort from this squad, it's probably not going to happen this year. So I'm building for the future and keeping an eye on the cap, because it doesn't matter how much money our super-heroic owner has, the cap will keep it in check. Here are the two or three steps I would take;
That's it for part one. Stay tuned for the second half of my summation of what I would do, if I were the Sabres GM this summer.
Well, as an opinionated Sabres fan, I clearly think I have all the answers. (Or, at least I find it fun to consider what I might do to improve my team). So, here's my 'off the cuff' plan for the Sabres off-season.
(Note: I'm going to be working with the numbers that are essentially agreed upon in the media from what I've read in the News and heard on WGR 550 that the Sabres, with who they have signed, plus the remaining RFAs are going to have about $10 Million to work with)
1) Sign a Third Line Center
This year isn't quite the year to go fishing in the open waters for big game, unless it's not so much in the open waters but much closer to home (I'll get to that later). Brad Richards is a heck of a player, but his price is going to be driven up by the lack of other top tier players (let alone centermen) that are entering Free Agency this year. So, while I feel the number one center is a definite need for this team.
My first look is going to be at former Sabres and soon to be form Rangers Captain Chris Drury. I don't have qualms over the way he left in bringing him back to the team (if he will come at the right place) and I think he's the kind of player who can call business business and sit down with Lindy, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Miller and the rest of the leaders in the room and say, 'This is your team, not mine. I'm here if you need me, but you're the vocal leader. I'm the guy who's going to do my job and put everything out there on the ice.' If that works, and we can get him for somewhere between $1.75 and $2.25 Million, preferably lower but with reasonable performance bonuses, then I'm a happy man.
But, there are lots of ifs there, not the least of which being hangups from 2007 and the fact that his being bought out (which can happen from today onward) puts him on the market first. My secondary thought here is a guy like Tomas Fleischmann of the Colorado Avalanche. He's a solid player who didn't play a full season last year but was able to pick up 31 points over 45 games. Extrapolated to a full season, he'd end up with 56 1/2 points, which would have been good enough for second on the team in scoring (his 31 points would have tied him with Nathan Gerbe and Paul Gaustad for 9th on the team in scoring). According to Cap Geek, he made approximately 2.6 Million dollars last year, and it is possible that his price could go up based on the aforementioned center-light free agent market. If he can be had between 2.75 and 3.5, plus incentives, I'm all in, as he has the potential to fill a second-line roll behind Derek Roy if we need to wait to get our top dog.
Without going too much more deeply into the pool of Free Agents I would offer one more option. The problem is, that option is Tim Connolly. I am not a huge Tim hater, but I think that his time here may simply be done, and unlike Max Afinagenov, he doesn't have a huge local fan base to root for his return. What he is is a (mostly) solid center who became invaluable on the PK by the end of last season. I don't relish the idea of bringing him back, and certainly not for what we were paying him before. But, if we need to, say somewhere between 1.5 and 2.25, I would (reluctantly) sign up for it.
2. Keep the Fish you have
If not for the fact that Drury may be available at some point today, I would have made this my first point, because this is the single most important thing that the Sabres need to do; Lock Tyler Myers up and do it for the long term. There's a lot of talk about players with "It" factor, the guys who have the skill, the room to grow and the intangibles to be a sure thing. Myers is that guy, the way that there hasn't been a guy like that on this team since Pat LaFontaine. He is the guy on this lineup who is not expendable in any way shape or form. I sit the big fella down and say, "Tyler, you are the guy who is going to lead this team to the promised land," and then proceed to back up a Brinks Truck. My guess is that we land somewhere in the neighborhood of 7 Years and somewhere between $38 and $45 Million dollars. It's a huge pay day, but is nothing compared to what he'd get on the open market, and getting an RFA offer sheet next year on him that makes Vanek's look like pocket change is not at all unrealistic for a talent like his.
3. Clear Cap Space
Yes, I know, $10 Million sounds like a lot of money to play with. But, realistically, it's one big fish or two medium sized fish (to be mentioned in the second half of our run down). But that's just next year. Sabres owner Terry Pegula has redefined the goal of the team, the oft quoted "the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup[1]." Barring miraculous work of EA Sports NHL trading proportions and/or remarkable effort from this squad, it's probably not going to happen this year. So I'm building for the future and keeping an eye on the cap, because it doesn't matter how much money our super-heroic owner has, the cap will keep it in check. Here are the two or three steps I would take;
- Move Shaone Morrisonn down to the AHL team (whoever it ends up being). It moves 2.075 Million off the books while keeping him around in case we run short of defenders. It also lets him grow into a veteran role on the aforementioned AHL team.
- Find someone to take Brad Boyes off our hands. Don't get me wrong; I like Boyes. I like him a lot, enough that I was considering trading away Drew Stafford's rights or just letting him go for a matched contract (and picks). I think that his slump towards the end of the season was because he was forced to play center and that even moving him back to the wing, he never got into his groove in the playoffs. I think he can be the guy who showed up the day he was traded here. But, I've paid for Stafford, and need the cash more than the player. If we trade him away for a low pick (a.k.a. thank you for taking this money off our hands) it's fine, but I see him being able to get a third round pick or a prospect for him.
- This is the tricky one. I've already said that my number one center isn't my goal this year. But, I'm willing to look at it if the move is right. Derek Roy has two years at 4 Million a year left on his contract. For the right team, that could be a very attractive player at a very attractive price, like Boyes was to us this year. But... this is contingent on the right play being out there to get a Top Flight (if not Superstar) center that will work on this team AND then being able to replace Roy as a would be 2nd line center.
That's it for part one. Stay tuned for the second half of my summation of what I would do, if I were the Sabres GM this summer.
The State of Goaltending in the NHL
Tim Thomas is, more than likely, about to win both the Vezina Trophy and the Conn Smythe Trophy (regardless of whether his team wins the Stanley Cup tomorrow night, 8PM on NBC). In six games in the Cup finals, he has allowed a total of seven goals. Over the course of his career, he has carried a sterling 2.11 Goals Against Average and a .933 Save Percentage. This year has been even better, carrying a 2.06 GAA and a .937 SvPc.
Roberto Luongo is not going to win the Conn Smythe this year, even if his team wins the cup, and has at best an outside chance at winning the Vezina. In three home games in the finals he has two shutouts (four taking the playoffs as a whole) and a 0.66 GAA, while at the same time being chased from the net in two out of three games in Boston, giving up a total of fifteen goals in, realistically, two games worth of playing time.
This year, statistically speaking, the two best goalies in the league are playing for the Stanley Cup
Last year Antti Niemi and the two-headed dragon of Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher went head to head in the finals. The three finalists for the Vezina were all drummed out in the first round of the playoffs. Going back to the lockout, this will be the only year that one of the top goaltenders will have won the cup (In order, Niemi, Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Osgood, J.S. Giguere and Cam Ward).
Before the lockout with only a handful of exceptions, the goaltenders that won the cup were the best in the game. Don't believe me?
It's possible that Thomas or Luongo will distinguish themselves further and make it to the level of some of those players, but I doubt it. The problem is this; Goaltending today is easy. I'm not saying that I could go out there and be an NHL goaltender, or that they don't deserve credit for standing in front of vulcanized rubber going (at times) in excess of 100 MPH. But, there's a disconnect between the great goaltenders of the past and the guys playing the game today.
Today, with the size of the gear, playing the percentages gets you about ninety-percent there. I know how to position myself to make a goal impossible. When Luongo made his inflammatory comments about the goal Vancouver won on in Game Five, he was talking about the way that most goaltenders are trained today, which is a condition of the size of the gear. A great save is made when a goaltender stands still and shrugs his shoulder in front of a puck.
Take a look at this video.
I was initially looking for just the first clip, Patrick Roy's ridiculous glove save while positioned, essentially, in the slot. But, through five minutes, you can see the evolution as gear got bigger and bigger. Goaltending became less and less about reflexes and guts, and more about a safe choice. It's a Hollywood super-sequel, or the eleventh Call of Duty game. It'll get the job done, but it is not the stuff of greatness.
And that, is why Roberto Luongo was right, and why Tim Thomas is one of the most engaging goaltenders to watch in the league. He plays at the edge of the crease and beyond it, he slides from side to side and makes legitimately great saves. He makes the spectacular saves that a guy like Luongo may make blandly from time to time, but likely misses all together, because playing inside the box it is impossible. Playing on the edge is just better for a game looking to grow.
(Also, if they made the gear smaller and/or the nets bigger, there's more scoring, which means more risks being taken each way, still more scoring and more excitement. But that's another argument for another time)
Roberto Luongo is not going to win the Conn Smythe this year, even if his team wins the cup, and has at best an outside chance at winning the Vezina. In three home games in the finals he has two shutouts (four taking the playoffs as a whole) and a 0.66 GAA, while at the same time being chased from the net in two out of three games in Boston, giving up a total of fifteen goals in, realistically, two games worth of playing time.
This year, statistically speaking, the two best goalies in the league are playing for the Stanley Cup
Last year Antti Niemi and the two-headed dragon of Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher went head to head in the finals. The three finalists for the Vezina were all drummed out in the first round of the playoffs. Going back to the lockout, this will be the only year that one of the top goaltenders will have won the cup (In order, Niemi, Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Osgood, J.S. Giguere and Cam Ward).
Before the lockout with only a handful of exceptions, the goaltenders that won the cup were the best in the game. Don't believe me?
1976-79 Ken Dryden (Montreal)
1980-83 Billy Smith (New York Islanders)
1984-85 Grant Fuhr (Edmonton)
1986 Patrick Roy (Montreal)
1987-88 Grant Fuhr (Edmonton)
1989 Mike Vernon (Calgary)
1990 Bill Ranford (Edmonton)
1991-92 Tom Barrasso (Pittsburgh)
1993 Patrick Roy (Montreal)
1994 Mike Richter (New York Rangers)
1995 Martin Brodeur (New Jersey)
1996 Patrick Roy (Colorado)
1997 Mike Vernon (Detroit)
1998 Chris Osgood (Detroit)
1999 Ed Belfour (Dallas)
2000 Martin Brodeur (New Jersey)
2001 Patrick Roy (Colorado)
2002 Dominick Hasek (Detroit)
2003 Martin Brodeur (New Jersey)
2004 Nikolai Khabibulin (Tampa Bay)
It's possible that Thomas or Luongo will distinguish themselves further and make it to the level of some of those players, but I doubt it. The problem is this; Goaltending today is easy. I'm not saying that I could go out there and be an NHL goaltender, or that they don't deserve credit for standing in front of vulcanized rubber going (at times) in excess of 100 MPH. But, there's a disconnect between the great goaltenders of the past and the guys playing the game today.
Today, with the size of the gear, playing the percentages gets you about ninety-percent there. I know how to position myself to make a goal impossible. When Luongo made his inflammatory comments about the goal Vancouver won on in Game Five, he was talking about the way that most goaltenders are trained today, which is a condition of the size of the gear. A great save is made when a goaltender stands still and shrugs his shoulder in front of a puck.
Take a look at this video.
I was initially looking for just the first clip, Patrick Roy's ridiculous glove save while positioned, essentially, in the slot. But, through five minutes, you can see the evolution as gear got bigger and bigger. Goaltending became less and less about reflexes and guts, and more about a safe choice. It's a Hollywood super-sequel, or the eleventh Call of Duty game. It'll get the job done, but it is not the stuff of greatness.
And that, is why Roberto Luongo was right, and why Tim Thomas is one of the most engaging goaltenders to watch in the league. He plays at the edge of the crease and beyond it, he slides from side to side and makes legitimately great saves. He makes the spectacular saves that a guy like Luongo may make blandly from time to time, but likely misses all together, because playing inside the box it is impossible. Playing on the edge is just better for a game looking to grow.
(Also, if they made the gear smaller and/or the nets bigger, there's more scoring, which means more risks being taken each way, still more scoring and more excitement. But that's another argument for another time)
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